lunes, 16 de septiembre de 2013

Unemployment

A few days ago we got the unemployment report by the Spanish National Statistical Institute (INE). The report says that there are 31 jobs more than the previous month, and in an economy with almost 6 millions of unemployed people, it does not bring hope to the Spaniards. However, other macroeconomic variables seem to indicate an improvement on the economy, for instance, the risk premium is falling back to the 90’s levels (+250 basis points), the stock markets are going up, and the exports are growing fast reaching levels unseen since 1997.

Source: arkansasgopwing.blogspot.com
Most economists and statesmen think this is the result of the economic reforms and the decrease of the spending, and due to that, they want to carry on with the same strategy, but macroeconomic theories do not agree with this plan. Actually, macroeconomists recommend increasing the spending to boost employment, but, why are they recommending that? The explanation is long-term unemployment that brings social exclusion and loss of skills.

The point is that if we behold the macroeconomic variables, the spending theory does not sound so bad. The real interest rate for the spanish government generic bond is about 2%, the average wage is decreasing, and people have never been so qualified, so if we take advantage of the situation borrowing and promoting the export and the high-tech activities, we can finish with the most important problem of this decade.

Now that the investment is an option for the Spanish economy, will the government take this opportunity? 



Author: Christian Corro Alvarado
Editor: Raquel Guerrero Plata

martes, 30 de abril de 2013

The European Union


Almost five years have passed since the beginning of this depression, which started when the bankrupcy of Lehman Brothers. During that time, our economies have been tested in all possible ways: risk premium, deflaction, unemployment rate... But the real test has not come yet. The challenge is to rebuild our economies around a weak system like the EU, marked by the continuous fights between the south and the north, a non-integrated fiscal monetary system and old political rivalries.


In the case of the Mediterranean economies we have two problems. The main problem is to find out how to finish with this depression and the current european policies, based on the idea of contraction equal more. The other one is that nowadays our economies are seriously injured, because the previous governments didn't do anything in order to achieve the growing and competitiveness in the most important areas.

For example, let's see the spanish case: during the gold age of the spanish economy, the different governments did policies that rose the wages on non-technological industries, they didn't support the technological development (despite that there are good researchers in the country) and neither of them created an efficient banking system. As a consequence of that, the unemployment rate, the risk premium and the fall of the banking system have been unstoppable during this little great depression.


With these evidences, all of us are wondering about the same question over and over again: should we give it all up in the southern countries? should we let them collapse, through neoliberal policies, as punishment for their behavior in the last years? No, this would be a huge mistake, because in Europe the powerful countries  need the weak countries more than they think and vice versa, and nowadays the EU can't afford a failure.

The north needs to understand that the southern countries don't need contractive policies that help to strangle more their economies, they need expansive policies to solve their problems with their financial systems and unemployment, and the south needs to understand they must reorientate their economies to achieve more competitiveness and stability, and also, to understand that this doesn't mean cutting off the economic and social rights.

Against the general opinion, there aren't different teams and every country must push in the same direction because there is only a feasible direction, otherwise, none of us will get out if this depression.


Author: Christian Corro Alvarado
Editor: Raquel Guerrero Plata